PRODAP RESIDENTIAL LAND AND PACKAGED HOUSING MARKET REPORT JUNE QUARTER 2007
(SAMPLE ANALYSIS ONLY)
Data Collection
The findings contained in this report have been
compiled from a survey of every active developer
of residential land, house/land packages,
townhouses and villa units in the Gold Coast
Statistical District (excluding Tweed Heads). We
also survey the Beenleigh and Tweed Shire
markets and these are available in separate
reports for specific purposes.
The data collected includes, for each project and product type, stock approved by council at the end of the quarter, pricing, sales for the quarter, and forecast production of new stock to be released over the next 12 months.
In terms of product type, the Prodap Report includes vacant land, house & land, duplex and villas. It does not include developments of less than 20 lots in size, retirement villages or apartments.
As of September 2005, the report no longer includes data relating to apartments. To ensure consistency, the data for the previous 12 months has been reconfigured to also exclude apartments. Apartment sales data can be found in the Midwood Report via www.midwoodaustralia.com
The data in this report is collected via telephone, email or facsimile questionnaire from every developer (or authorised representative) on the Gold Coast. There are around 100-150 information providers in total. In aggregate the data is considered to be reliable as an indication for the current state of the market and likely future trends. That said, the data may contain minor survey errors.
The data is aggregated and plotted against historical trend data to produce forecasts of supply and demand for both vacant allotments and packaged housing to the year 2009/10. This is the only survey research of the Gold Coast market which examines future supply prospects as well as demand, thereby truly capturing the total picture of supply and demand for land and packaged housing product.
Market Overview
Vacant land and house/land package sales:
Sales of vacant allotments in particular were
down by almost 24% to 626 in the June 2007
quarter compared to the March 2007 quarter.
House/land package sales held up at 165, but
continue to be low compared to historical
trends.
Stock levels of vacant lots are critically low at 700, and the major cause of lower sales volumes. The larger developers have not been able to maintain reasonable stock levels, which is generally the result of delays in Council approvals of subdivisions and plan sealing, although there may be other procedural problems in some cases.
New production forecasts continue to be well above last year's demand, which augers well for supply in 2007-08. However, developers' forecasts of future production are often optimistic, so that the margin between forecast stock and demand may not be that great. Land prices continue to strengthen in the order of 9-10% per annum, and are due to rise even further until stock levels recover up to around 1200 available lots compared to 700 at present. This could take a further 2-3 years, based upon developer forecasts of new production.
